This Is It

Thoughts on a do-or-die game for the Knicks in South Beach

Almost 10 years ago today exactly, my wife and I entered a Madison Square Garden building full of hope. There was always some trepidation with this Carmelo-lead Knicks team. Some roster pieces were temporary and some were fill-in players destined for free agency but at a bare minimum, we could rely on two things that got us to this point:

1) A defensive juggernaut at center who mastered the offensive glass providing plenty of second chance opportunities.

2) An All-Star forward where, despite some ball-movement and defensive frustrations, was capable of taking over any given game offensively.

This was our first real shot at a title since the 1990’s and the vibes were immaculate. We could beat this team. We can move on to the Easter Conference Finals.

Reality sets in.

The Knicks shoot 43% from the floor, lose our supposed rebounding edge 44 to 30 and struggle to find any offense after our primary option. We lose Game 1. Win a convincing game 2 but are absolutely slaughtered in game 3 mustering up a putrid 71 total points - an offensive disaster even for the time.

Are we getting the picture yet? Does any of this sound familiar?

The 2023 Knicks are in the second round of the NBA playoffs and facing nearly identical circumstances but there are some key differences (most of which I laid out here https://evanmelendez.substack.com/p/comparing-the-2023-and-2013-knicks ). Mainly - this is a Heat team the Knicks have played competitively in the regular season winning at least 3 out of 4 times. Miami also had a healthy Jimmy Butler in those games and are now missing two key rotation players in the playoffs.

On the other end, this is also a Heat team that is superbly coached and holds many of the same, core, pieces that made them both a Finals and Conference Finals contender in 2 of the last 3 years.

No matter where this series lands these facts will probably leave you in many group chats arguing … “are the Knicks losing this series or is Miami winning it?”.

I’d argue 60/40.

We are discounting this Miami team entirely too much. This is no plucky play-in team that’s just “happy to be here”. This is an expertly coached team with enough top-end talent and willing role-players capable of attacking the opponent’s weaknesses with surgical precision. A team that despite its regular season woes - was always a looming playoff threat as it had been 2 of the 3 years prior. Their recent playoff dominance should not be considered an aberration.

Even still let’s call it what it is. The Knicks blinked. We’ve continued to start Josh Hart, despite a healthy Grimes, out of fear of Jimmy Butler (who’s injured mind you)….a decision which has limited the starters spacing and reduced our bench to the lowest performing back-up totals of all playoff teams this round. Transition buckets have become all but non-existent and any second unit spark to speak of has been nearly eradicated. We are barely winning the offensive glass 37-31 (an area we’ve led the league in most of the year) and defensively, Miami has become more comfortable attacking the rim from Game 1 to Game 3. Our bigs have to be better.

Last, of course, you cannot win shooting 20% from three. There is blame all around here but Randle and Brunson must shoot better. And again, defensively, we are leaving Heat players wide open both in the paint and on the perimeter because guys aren’t closing out quick enough on their assignments and we are trapping much too often on Miami’s ball-handlers (news flash - Miami is not a great shooting team).

Everything above that I laid out? … this is what we call winning on the margins. There is absolutely nothing here, no talent discrepancy and no significant disadvantage that says the Knicks cannot flip the series on its head. Win game 4 and you have 2 of the next 3 at Madison Square Garden. It’s that simple. Play a tad bit smarter and a tad harder and the pressure falls back on Miami. On a more specific, if oversimplified note: Make Jimmy beat you and go back to what made you a threat in the regular season.

Hyperbole Corner: Win just 3 more games and this is the most successful season the Knicks have had in roughly 25 years. To do that - the change back has to come tonight.

Don’t let the ghosts of 2013 beat you. And most importantly of all…Let’s F**king Go Knicks.